(Updated) NWS: Rainfall Predictions Increased for Severe Weather Thursday
UPDATE: 12:37pm Thursday
The National Weather Service in Paducah has updated the amount rainfall expected to hit our area in the second round of storms this afternoon.
NWS Meteorologist David Humphrey says more rain fell yesterday in the first round of storms than initially expected which increases the risk of flash flooding today.
“Initially we thought 2-3 inches [for today], but many areas got 1-2 inches last night, so maybe with another 1-1.5 inches you could see up to 2-3 in the low end and on the higher up to 4 inches in total,” said Humphrey.
Humphrey says the major concerns still include flooding due to standing water on roadways and lower areas as well as a chance of tornadoes and hail damage.
Although the time frame for the approaching storm hasn't changed, due to warmer temperatures the storm could develop any time this afternoon.
Henry County, Tenn. Emergency Manager Ronald Watkins says the major concern for his area is damaging wind and flooding occurring tonight from 10pm to midnight.
Humphrey says the storm should dissipate by Friday morning and to expect temperatures in the mid-60s through the weekend.
In a conference call this afternoon, National Weather Service meteorologist David Humphrey detailed new information on the approaching weather system.
Humphrey said tonight and Thursday morning will make up the first of two rounds of severe weather, with the latter standing as the main threat.
“Wind fields are increasing tonight, specifically low level wind fields, so there is a five percent tornado threat tonight with the slight risk. Also, large hail and damaging winds would be contained in the slight risk,” Humphrey said.
Humphrey said there will be a lull from midmorning to mid-afternoon tomorrow, but the night will carry a moderate risk of severe weather.
“The moderate risk includes a 45 percent area – bowls right over all of us - a combined severe weather outlook area for tornados, large hail and damaging winds," Humphrey said.
Humphrey expects an average rainfall of 1.5-3 inches.
National Weather Service meteorologists say there is a moderate risk of severe weather in western Kentucky over the next couple of days, particularly late Thursday afternoon leading into Thursday night.
NWS meteorologist Rick Shanklin said conditions Wednesday and Thursday will create a hatched area over all of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
“The hatched area is where we have a 10 percent or greater probability of high-end severe weather conditions, such as tornadoes an EF-2 or greater in intensity, winds of at least 74 miles per hour or hail at least 2 inches in diameter,” Shanklin said.
Shanklin said 1-2 inches of rain is possible for western Kentucky with higher amounts in some localized areas. The possibility for flash flooding depends on how much rain falls Wednesday, creating ground saturation ahead of Thursday’s rain.